Nigeria came full circle in April 2015 when it elected Muhammudu Buhari as president, turning in mid-crisis to a former military ruler now convinced of the merits of democracy. Soon after his election, the tortuous course of the relationship Nigeria had embarked upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the 1980s, during Buhari’s first spell in charge, looked set for a reprise.
A cycle recurs roughly every ten years in Nigeria. Oil prices weaken or crash whilst the president spends recklessly to try and hold on to power. He is dislodged and a new president declares the treasury empty and holds talks with the IMF. No deal is agreed, but the World Bank and other donors offer bigger loans on less strict conditions. The oil price picks up – and it’s “business as usual” till the next crash. Successive governments have had just enough oil money in times of crisis to say “no thanks” to the IMF’s cash and policies, and to win public acclaim for standing up to it.
IMF policy prescriptions and oversight can affront national pride, especially that of Nigerians. Allowing the IMF to scrutinise the national accounts also threatens the ruling elite, which is reliant on control of the country’s resources. Nigeria’s accounting for its vast oil revenue and expenditure is at best, and by design, opaque.
Crusade against corruption
