Aregbesola, Omisore and Osun state’s August votes by Lasisi Olagunju

About 18 months ago, I was at a media event in Lagos where Senator Iyiola Omisore unveiled his decision to contest the 2014 governorship election in Osun State. He spoke so passionately about his love for the state and why and how he would contest and win. I remember a number of people spoke. I remember (for whatever reasons) I was asked to also say something. I remember I got up, slowly, then told Senator Omisore that if the election was held under the prevailing circumstance, Mr Rauf Aregbesola, then of the ACN, would win. I remember I explained that Aregbesola would win, not for anything else, but for the fact that there would be no opposition political party to contest the seat with him. Omisore’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as far back as that time, was already rent, badly divided in Osun State. It was at that event that some of the editors got to know that Omisore had parted ways with his friend, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, at a time he ( the senator) was already in competition for the governorship ticket of the party with three other key stakeholders in the PDP. I thought I was helping him, giving him hints of what needed to be done, but the ever confident, optimistic Omisore dismissed my words. “Nobody will be a threat to this project,” he said as I took my seat.

As I sat back at that event, playing with my phone, my mind was scouring the ocean beds of history, of Generals who went to wars and came out victorious and in one piece, and of those defeated, badly bruised. I remembered Hannibal, imperial Rome’s tormentor for many years. Would history have listed Hannibal among military geniuses if he had repeatedly fought and failed in his missions? And, more importantly, would he have won his wars if he had fought all battles? Should a good commander fight all battles? Shouldn’t he select his battles while focusing intently on winning the war? Would Hannibal have been celebrated in history if he had not taken his troops (and elephants) through the Alps? Would he have been able to cross the Alps if he had not been conciliatory with the Gauls through whose territory he had to pass to fulfill his destiny?
Perhaps, I know so much about so many things in that state. I think I should, otherwise, I would be a failure. Perhaps, because of this, I was not really shocked by the outcome of the August 9 election. Nothing has been learnt by anybody and nobody has forgotten anything. Fixative rigidity on all sides delivered victory on the laps of APC’s Rauf Aregbesola. There is so much sense and wisdom in Niccolo Machiavelli’s counsel to statesmen, Generals and politicians to learn to “live without factions;” and govern with “limited warfare.” So, if I were Omisore, I would not fight civil wars in my party, with my friends, when the real war with the real enemy loomed. If I were him, I would not compete for domination of the home space when the palace was within my reach to conquer with a united army. I know Omisore reasonably well. He has a passion for whatever he believes in. Very courageous and focused, he has a very large dose of bravery. Whatever anyone says, I think he would have a date with history if only he would take time to do some self and environmental appraisal. He needs to know who his real friends are and devise a means of keeping them.

Now, if I were Omisore, I would ask questions about the patterns of the votes that gave victory to my opponent. I would want to know why, despite all assurances, the Muslim ummah in that state, at the last minute, gave an almost unanimous support to the man who won. I would ask too why the Hausa/northern community unanimously voted APC. Were these groups asked to do so at the very last minute? If they were asked to do so, then, who did, and why? Would this have been so if the umbrella of the PDP had remained intact, un-rent by internal strives?

Again, 960,000 people out of the 1.4 million registered voters took the pains to collect their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). Of this figure, a little over 700,000 voted. Why would almost half a million people not bother to collect their PVCs and join my Rescue Mission? If I were Omisore, I would ask questions as to why over 200,000 persons with PVCs stayed away from that election. Was it due to my fault? Would they have made a difference in my electoral fortune if they had voted? Who really were these people? I would seek answers to these questions and even ask more. I would ask why my opponent shared my home votes with me in Ile Ife and I could not poach his in Ilesa. I would ask why this did not happen to me in 1999 when I contested for the state’s deputy governorship, and in 2003 and 2007 when I ran for the Osun East Senatorial seat... what else is there to tell Omisore?

Now, Rauf Aregbesola. Should I be surprised the APC candidate celebrated his win with gusto? Who wouldn’t? But if I were him, I would lock myself up in the pent room of the Government House and ask questions. I campaigned every month (through my Walk to Live project) for 44 months in all local governments; gave out 150,000 (???) digital tablets to pupils; distributed N800 million worth of school uniforms - and got 394,000 votes out of a voter population of 1.4 million! Even if I use the almost a million voters with PVCs to do my calculation, would I say I have passed? Is 39 per cent a pass mark anywhere? What went wrong? Who have I wronged? Why would almost half a million people not bother to collect their PVCs and join my Continuity project? Why? If I were him, I would ask why civil servants, teachers, pensioners and their relations and friends constituted the undisguised majority of the 292,000 votes garnered by my main opponent. I would ask where I got it wrong with these key stakeholders in the governance of my state and how I could redeem myself... I would then kneel before God and pray that He gives me the strength, this time, to listen more and talk less; to govern more and do less politics; to succeed in giving joy to the greatest number of the people of my state. I would pray for God’s uncommon favours to be successful in doing good to all manner of people irrespective of who they are...I would work and work for the next four years and pray to exit in a blaze of glory... As for me, I will join the man in these prayers. I will...

Now, for the people of that state, the election has been held, won and lost. Like I said two weeks ago, elections have consequences, repercussions; pleasant and unpleasant. There will certainly be in this case. A governor has been elected. The thing left to do is to go back to God with prayers to be around in four years time- to do stock-taking and then vote in the next poll.

Congratulations to the man who won.